Conviction is overrated; sizing is everything. You can be right twice in a row and still get wiped if you bet like you are certain. The people who last are not the ones with the best calls — they are the ones who never bet the firm on any single one.

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Sizing over conviction is the entire lesson I learned managing family capital. The ones who survived were not the smartest — they were the ones who never made an irreversible bet.

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